The population forecast is based on net migration, fertility and mortality since 1985.

Please note that the population forecast will no longer be updated. The latest version from 2022 will remain available on this page, but no further updates will be made.

The forecast uses a probabilistic methodology by making 10,000 forecasts based on net migration, fertility and mortality rates since 1985.

The median figure from these forecasts makes up the forecasted population figure.

Glossary:

• Net migration is the difference of immigrants over emigrants.
• Fertility rate is the number of live births per 1,000 women.  
• Mortality rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 people.
• The ‘per 1,000 unit’ is used to account for differences in population, sex distribution, etc. This makes it possible to compare periods with e.g. different populations.
• Sex distribution is the percentage distribution between males and females.
• Index shows the year-to-year percentage change, with a base year set at 100. The difference between two years is measured in percentage points.
• Dependency ratio is the ratio of dependent young and old to the population generally considered to be of working age, those aged 16-66. When the dependency burden is 1, the number of people in the 16-66 age bracket is equal to that of the rest of the population.

See also Population, Net migration, Births and Deaths.

Methods:

From the forecasts these probability levels are extracted:

 There is a probability of 95% for the forecast population to be between lower95 and upper95

 There is a probability of 90% for the forecast population to be between lower90 and upper90

 There is a probability of 80% for the forecast population to be between lower80 and upper80

 median: The middle value